In addition to what Temico said, I think the phrase has more function than meaning- it suggests something (the hunch) and makes you ask them what it is- it's a tentative way of exploring something. If, say, they had to say something difficult, but which a true friend couldn't avoid, then they could use this phrase as a starter- you then have to ask them to tell you, so they have permission. They could then start 'well, err, I think, that it could be...' This would be much better than saying 'you're stressed because you're about to be sacked' or something like that, which would be cold and likely to be badly received.
I have a funny feeling 
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