If they bear out, it would

[suprunp]

If larger studies bear out this initial finding, valproic acid would be the first drug for AIDS dementia, Gelbard says.
(Scientific American Mind; Volume 17, Number 4; Stopping HIV Dementia)

How would it change the meaning if I said:

"If larger studies bear out this initial finding, valproic acid will be the first drug for AIDS dementia."

Thanks.

[MartinEnglish]

It changes in that "will" sounds as if you believe it is more likely to happen.

If England win the World Cup I'll be happy (optimistic, I believe it's possible)
If England won the Worlc Cup I'd be happy (speaking only hypothetically as I don't think it is likely - a realist!)

[suprunp]

It changes in that "will" sounds as if you believe it is more likely to happen.

If England win the World Cup I'll be happy (optimistic, I believe it's possible)
If England won the Worlc Cup I'd be happy (speaking only hypothetically as I don't think it is likely - a realist!)

Why doesn't the original sentence read as follows then: "If larger studies bore out this initial finding, valproic acid would be the first drug for AIDS dementia."?

Thanks.

[emsr2d2]

Because larger studies haven't happened yet but it's pretty certain that they will take place. What is not certain is the outcome of the studies.

[anhnha]

Is "would" here past form of "will"?
Is "would" can be use to express possibility in the future?
What kind of the above sentence? Is it a conditional sentence?
Thanks.