Epidemic threshold

[Marceloatp]

What does "epidemic threshold" mean ?

It's something as where the epidemic begins, or it's something about the level of the disease.

context: "...and Congo, where the epidemic threshold has been reached.."

thanks

[Anglika]

This is the meaning I have found: An increase in deaths of 1.645 standard deviations above the seasonal baseline (5% of all) is defined as the "epidemic threshold" ie it is a statistical measurement derived from figures for the disease concerned.

Here's another explanation (this time citing influenza):

The CDC's definition of a flu epidemic relates to the percentage of deaths in a given week caused by influenza and pneumonia. The "epidemic threshold" is a certain percentage above what is considered normal for that period. The normal level, or baseline, is statistically determined based on data from past flu seasons.