2, but in subtler ways than you suggest. For example, in a rugby match there will be less handling if the ball is wet; there will be less kicking if there's a swirling or variable wind ; there will be more kicking in each half (for the relevant side) if the wind is strong and constant. Factors like this will emphasize the relative strengths/weaknesses of cerrtain individuals.
1 is inadmissible because weather is not a crucial factor in the game; it's the criticial factor for the referee's go/no-go decision.
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