That is not an easy question to answer. The good news is that it doesn't matter much. The construction "going + to + base verb" is a bit idiomatic in English. As you know, it is used as a substitute for the future tense.Originally Posted by whl626
Some would say that "going to" is a phrasal verb and "make" is a bare infinitive (without its own "to"). Others would say that "going" is part of the progressive form of "go" and "to make" is its infinitive complement. I prefer the second explanation, but both are defendable.