“MANY signs point to a growing historical consciousness among the American people.”

Question: If I change “point to” with “show”, what’s the subtle difference?
My own feeling is that if we say “signs point to something”, we are suggesting something that is quite likely to happen. Likelihood is involved. But if we say “signs show”, then the likelihood is not there. Am I right? Or I didn’t see the real difference between the two? Thanks.