<<(1). Do you need a comma after Hey?>>"Hey, John, do you think people will like a referendum?"
There should be a comma after "Hey". The comma indicates the pause that would be there in speech.
<<(2). There are two "a"s, should the second one be changed to "the?">>"Hey, John, do you think people will like a referendum?"
"Well, I don't know, this will be a first time; the proof of the pudding is in the eating. Let's wait and see."
Yes. "This will be a first time" is not natural.
"Let's wait and see" is fine as is.
<<(4). Anything else wrong I did not see?>>
Try: "Do you think people would like a referendum?" (Or: would like to have a referendum)
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