[Grammar] Would with the meaning of probability in the past

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Kotfor

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As far as I know "would" can express probability in the past.

Example

That happened a long time ago. I would be (was probably) about twenty at the time.

What I'd like to know is

1) Is it only used with the verb "to be"?

Is it fine to say: I don't remember what happened next. They would probably go away. (meaning I think it is very possible that they went away.)

2) Is it ok to use it in a negative sentence?

He wouldn't be twenty at the time. (meaning He was unlikely to be 20 at that time.
 
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bhaisahab

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As far as I know "would" can express probability in the past.

Example

That happened a long time ago. I would be (was probably) about twenty at the time. I would say "I would've been about twenty..."

What I'd like to know is

1) Is it only used with the verb "to be"?
Is it fine to say: I don't remember what happened next. They would probably go away. (meaning I think it is very possible that they went away.) "They would've probably gone away" would be just about OK, "They probably went away" is better and more natural.

2) Is it OK to use it in a negative sentence?

He wouldn't be twenty at the time. (meaning He was unlikely to be 20 at that time."He wouldn't have been..."
Bhai.
 

Kotfor

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Bhai, thanks a lot.

Your answers have risen more difficulties in my mind.

First of all. I somehow see that these two sentences have differnet meanings.
==================================
My interpretation

1) I would be (was probably) about twenty at the time.
(the indicative mood)

Means: The speaker really believes (is pretty much sure) that he was about twenty at that time. Apart from that the speaker is older than 20 years old now.


2) I would've been about twenty at the time.
(the subjunctive mood) Ok, if you don't agree that this is the subjunctive mood then let me say it has a hypothetical meaning which belongs to the subjunctive mood.

Means: The speaker says that he would have been about 20 at that time but he never really was. I know that with the pronoun "I" it is not possible to say, because if you are saying that it means that you are older than 20 now but you never were 20. But with other pronouns it sounds fine.

He would've been about twenty at the time. (but he died when he was 19.

I think they convey different meanings especially when we dwell on hypothetical versus real action.
======
Summary

Things in common between I would be (was probably)/I would have been = They both express probability

Difference between I would be (was probably)/I would have been = 1) the first one refers to a real action 2) The second one refers to hypothetical action
 

bhaisahab

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Bhai, thanks a lot.

Your answers have risen more difficulties in my mind.

First of all. I somehow see that these two sentences have differnet meanings.
==================================
My interpretation

1) I would be (was probably) about twenty at the time.
(the indicative mood)

Means: The speaker really believes (is pretty much sure) that he was about twenty at that time. Apart from that the speaker is older than 20 years old now.


2) I would've been about twenty at the time.
(the subjunctive mood) Ok, if you don't agree that this is the subjunctive mood then let me say it has a hypothetical meaning which belongs to the subjunctive mood.

Means: The speaker says that he would have been about 20 at that time but he never really was. I know that with the pronoun "I" it is not possible to say, because if you are saying that it means that you are older than 20 now but you never were 20. But with other pronouns it sounds fine.


He would've been about twenty at the time. (but he died when he was 19.

I think they convey different meanings especially when we dwell on hypothetical versus real action.
======
Summary

Things in common between I would be (was probably)/I would have been = They both express probability

Difference between I would be (was probably)/I would have been = 1) the first one refers to a real action 2) The second one refers to hypothetical action
Think about this:
"Did your grandfather fight in the first world war?" "Yes, he was born in 1895 so he would've been about nineteen when war broke out." There is nothing hypothetical about this.
 
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5jj

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2) I would've been about twenty at the time.
(the subjunctive mood) Ok, if you don't agree that this is the subjunctive mood then let me say it has a hypothetical meaning which belongs to the subjunctive mood.
This is not subjunctive mood.
As bhai noted, it is not hypothetical.
John was born soon after I left England, so he will be 13 now. - certainty about the present.
He will have started school when he was 4. - certainty about the past.

Margaret was born while her mother was at uni. She would be about 16 now. - more tentative certainty about the present.
I don't think she was married at the time; her mother would have been most upset. - more tentative certainty about the past.
 

Kotfor

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Ok. Then I think we should find out what the hypothetical form would be.


- I know your grandfather was a brave soldier. Did he fight in the first world war?
- I am sure he would haved fought but he had died before it broke out.

I think now it is hypothetical, isn't it?
 

Kotfor

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Margaret was born while her mother was at uni. She would be about 16 now. - more tentative certainty about the present.
That's it! This is what I find difficult.

Based on the grammar book by Hornby, I am convinced that it can refer both to the past and the present.

This is the example from the book

That happened a long time ago. I would be (was probably) about twenty at the time. - It is clear that it refers to the past.

Do you rule out such possibility?
 

5jj

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- I know your grandfather was a brave soldier. Did he fight in the first world war?
- I am sure he would haved fought but he had died before it broke out.

I think now it is hypothetical, isn't it?
Yes - counterfactual, even.
 

Barb_D

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That happened a long time ago. I would be (was probably) about twenty at the time. - It is clear that it refers to the past.


I can't imagine saying this.
 

5jj

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Based on the grammar book by Hornby, I am convinced that it can refer both to the past and the present.

That happened a long time ago. I would be (was probably) about twenty at the time. - It is clear that it refers to the past.

Do you rule out such possibility?
No, I don't rule it out, but I think bhai's version reflects what most people would say today. Don't forget, Hornby was writing in 1953, bhai in 2011.
 

Coolfootluke

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As far as I know "would" can express probability in the past.

Example

That happened a long time ago. I would be (was probably) about twenty at the time.

What I'd like to know is

1) Is it only used with the verb "to be"?

Is it fine to say: I don't remember what happened next. They would probably go away. (meaning I think it is very possible that they went away.)

2) Is it ok to use it in a negative sentence?

He wouldn't be twenty at the time. (meaning He was unlikely to be 20 at that time.
I am not a teacher.

That is an unusual locution, but it is English, all right. I disagree with Hornby when he says "I would be (was probably) about twenty at the time." "About" takes care of the uncertainty, so it's "I would be (was) about twenty at the time." (You can't say "I would be twenty at the time" with the same meaning.) "Would be" is a sort of conjugation of "to be" used in place of "was" to express dreamy, offhand imprecision. I think you can safely forget about it for your own writing; it is rarely seen and would only be appropriate in a fictional journal or something like that.

1. Good question. Yes, "to be" only, I think, and ages only, too.
2. I don't think so. It's a delicate thing, using as it does, let's face it, the wrong conjugation of the verb.
 

Barb_D

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The only time I can imagine using it that way is if we were looking at a picture from the past.

Look, you can see Fuzzy is just a kitten, and we got him in 1972, so that would make me 6 or so, and you would be... 17? Could that be right?
 

Coolfootluke

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I am not a teacher.

Grammatically funny things happen around the verb "to make", don't they? I said that it's only with "to be", and Barb_D comes up with a different verb. But it is possible to construe "make me 6 or so" as "make me (be) 6 or so".
 

5jj

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The only time I can imagine using it that way is if we were looking at a picture from the past.

Look, you can see Fuzzy is just a kitten, and we got him in 1972, so that would make me 6 or so, and you would be... 17? Could that be right?
That works, but in a sense it is not really past, as we are talking about the situation in the picture in front of us - a sort of photo-caption-present.
 

bhaisahab

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That works, but in a sense it is not really past, as we are talking about the situation in the picture in front of us - a sort of photo-caption-present.
Yes I agree, for me "I would be about twenty at the time" only works in that sort of context.
 

Kotfor

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I can see how it could have been changed since that time. In fact, such things as shall/will, some usages of perfect infinitive have been changed. I think that some nuances have been eliminated from the language in the last 60 years.
-----------------------------

I must say that speaking English as a second language I have no other way to learn things but resort to the prescriptive way of learning. What I mean by that is that it’s necessary to find out what a certain tense or form may mean or may not. This is why it’s crucial to find out all ideas which one form can convey or can’t. To me it’s not hairs splitting but the only way to learn things.
-----------------------------

Getting back to our sentence I feel being put in an uneasy situation here. :)

As we agreed in posts 8 and 11 that this locution is rare but possible I am drawn to conclusion that on the other hand it would fit perfectly in factual/counterfactual concept.


As we see this sentence is ambiguous - "Yes, he was born in 1895 so he would've been about nineteen when war broke out." This ambiguity especially shows when I translate it into my first language. So there are two ways to understand it

1) I think he was about nineteen (and chances are he was) (factual)
2) I think he would have been nineteen (but he never had a chance to be) (counterfactual)


I think for the sake of clarity Hornby’s option would fit perfectly and it would have a reserved meaning for the factual action. Thus we wouldn’t be in the middle of ambiguity. However, Hornby’s option is a very rare case as many said.

Could you explain more why this usage you find acceptable in this situation? Any other similar situations? (Not with a photo though)
The only time I can imagine using it that way is if we were looking at a picture from the past.

Look, you can see Fuzzy is just a kitten, and we got him in 1972, so that would make me 6 or so, and you would be... 17? Could that be right?
 

Coolfootluke

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I am not a teacher.
<snip>
I must say that speaking English as a second language I have no other way to learn things but resort to the prescriptive way of learning. What I mean by that is that it’s necessary to find out what a certain tense or form may mean or may not. This is why it’s crucial to find out all ideas which one form can convey or can’t. To me it’s not hairs splitting but the only way to learn things.

Right.
-----------------------------

Getting back to our sentence I feel being put in an uneasy situation here. :)

As we agreed in posts 8 and 11 that this locution is rare but possible I am drawn to conclusion that on the other hand it would fit perfectly in factual/counterfactual concept.


As we see this sentence is ambiguous - "Yes, he was born in 1895 so he would've been about nineteen when war broke out." This ambiguity especially shows when I translate it into my first language. So there are two ways to understand it

1) I think he was about nineteen (and chances are he was) (factual)
2) I think he would have been nineteen (but he never had a chance to be) (counterfactual)

I think for the sake of clarity Hornby’s option would fit perfectly and it would have a reserved meaning for the factual action. Thus we wouldn’t be in the middle of ambiguity. However, Hornby’s option is a very rare case as many said.

I understand. What you say is true, that it would be an excellent way to eliminate ambiguity in the case you set. The problem is that it is liable to be misunderstood so far as to be thought a mistake by most readers. It is idiomatic and eccentric; it is not a regular part of Standard English, and you will find it in no treatment of verb conjugations.

Could you explain more why this usage you find acceptable in this situation? Any other similar situations? (Not with a photo though)
 

5jj

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Kotfor;716957[I said:
What I mean by that is that it’s necessary to find out what a certain tense or form may mean or may not. This is why it’s crucial to find out all ideas which one form can convey or can’t. To me it’s not hairs splitting but the only way to learn things.[/I]
You have a never-ending job. Given the right context - sometimes rather far-fetched - most tenses can be used to refer to most time possibilities.

Here are some basic examples:

[FONT=&quot]Present tense for past time[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]1939. 15 March: Germany invades Czechoslovakia. Hitler claims that German troops were invited 'to keep order'.[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
Jane tells me you've not been too well since you got back.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Present tense for present time[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]My stomach hurts.[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
And Gray takes the ball upfield again, passes to McNally on the edge of the box.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Present Tense for 'general' time[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Babies normally lose weight in the beginning.[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
I never drink alone.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Present Tense for future time[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]I'm having a drink with Jill after the film.[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
I leave on the eleventh, but I come back overnight, so I’ll be back here on the twelfth.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
The UN General Assembly opens in New York late this month.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
Tomorrow is Tuesday.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Past tense for past time[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Freda started school last year.[/FONT][FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Past tense for present time[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]I was wondering if you had a couple of minutes?[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot](Assistant, to customer in a dry cleaner’s):[/FONT][FONT=&quot] What was the name, please?[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
They would be here with us if they had the time[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot].[/FONT][FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Past tense for 'general' time[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]If you were as poor as I am, you’d feel differently.[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
I wish I had a memory like yours.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Past tense for future time[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Her daughter was going to a summer camp tomorrow.[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
If I went back on the train tonight, it'd b[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]e cheaper.[/FONT][FONT=&quot]

[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]‘Past Conditional’ for future time[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]If I had known that Julian was speaking at next week’s conference, I would have gone. [/FONT]

Rather than worry about the more unlikely things tenses could be used for, concentrate on their core uses. As you master these, you will find that some of the unusual uses are not so unusual as they seem at first.
 

Kotfor

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You have a never-ending job. Given the right context - sometimes rather far-fetched - most tenses can be used to refer to most time possibilities.

I don't think that it's endless. I have 18 cases of usage of Present Simple on my list which I have collected here and there. :)

All your examples are great and pretty much popular and clear. I think that you would try to determine the borders for every tense or other locution if you were learning a foreign langauge. Or probably you have been doing so. Otherwise it's not possible to master the grammar.
 

5jj

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I don't think that it's endless. I have 18 cases of usage of Present Simple on my list which I have collected here and there. :)
You have a long way to go.I once carried out an informal survey of 30 books by, in total, 45 writers to see how they described the ways in which the Present Simple is used. I came up with 59 different usages! (I'll PM you the list if you are interested). If you have to master 59 different usages for just one tense, you are faced with a hopeless task.

I favour a more holistic approach to tenses. Although it's moderately simple, it's too complex to go into here. If you are interested, read: http://www.gramorak.com/Articles/Tense.pdf
 
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