The second one is quite rarely used - perhaps the speaker is reading the sports pages of a newspaper. It could also be used because of the other person's attitude - but it sounds as though the speaker expects applause for guessing right.
The third seems rather odd. It suggests that the speaker was challenged to guess. The normal way of expressing a guess based on the other person's attitude is 'It looks like/as if/as though you won the game last night'.
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