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    #1

    statement of probability

    Please make the following in red clear for me.

    There is no "maybe" embedded in that statement; it's clear statement of probability.

    Does this mean "highly probable statement", or "a statement that has a very high possibility of truth"?

    Thank you.

  1. Raymott's Avatar
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    #2

    Re: statement of probability

    Quote Originally Posted by unpakwon View Post
    Does this mean "highly probable statement", or "a statement that has a very high possibility of truth"?

    Thank you.
    To me it means neither. Of course, it would be useful to see the "statement".
    "The probability of rain tomorrow is ten percent."
    That is a clear statement of probability, with no "maybe" in it, and it doesn't mean what you say. But there is a difference between whether the statement is highly probable and whether the statement deals with a high probability. This statement deals with a low probability but, depending on the reliability of the weather department, the statement may possess a high probability of being true.

    In contrast, "It might or might not rain romorrow" is not a clear statement of probability.
    Last edited by Raymott; 28-Mar-2014 at 11:32.

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    #3

    Re: statement of probability

    The statement is this:

    Princeton University tells its students, "You can maximize what you learn in and from lectures by following three easy steps: 1) adopt active listening skills; 2) take clear, effective notes; and 3) review your notes within 24 hours of taking them. There is no "maybe" embedded in that statement; it's clear statement of probability.

  2. Raymott's Avatar
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    #4

    Re: statement of probability

    Quote Originally Posted by unpakwon View Post
    Princeton University tells its students, "You can maximize what you learn in and from lectures by following three easy steps: 1) adopt active listening skills; 2) take clear, effective notes; and 3) review your notes within 24 hours of taking them. There is no "maybe" embedded in that statement; it's clear statement of probability.
    He's pointing out that it is (objectively) more probable that what you learn will be maximised by doing those things, compared to not doing those things. And he is stessing that he doesn't mean "Maybe you will do better."
    Unfortunately, I don't think he's right. There is a 'maybe' there, just as there is a "maybe it will rain tomorrow" in the proposition that "There is a ninety percent chance that it will rain tomorrow". If he means "You absolutely will maximise what you learn", then it's a statement of certainty, not probability. And if he doesn't mean that, there is a 'maybe' there.
    When I said there was no 'maybe' in my above post, I thought he meant no word 'maybe'. There is an implicit maybe.

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