I am not a teacher.
It seems you are talking about two different crises, or the same crisis seen from two different time perspectives.
Part one is about a possible future crisis that can still be averted if it rains.
"the crisis won't be averted..." is natural because it is in the future tense.
Part two is about a crisis that has already happened.
If some positive action had not been taken, then the crisis wouldn't have happened, but it did.
Student or Learner