I agree. I think way too much has been made of likelihood as it applies to conditionals. Context determines that much more than structure.
Many have said that the first conditional is used for real possibilities while second conditionals are used for situations that are unlikely or improbable. This is true in many cases, but the OP's sentences don't fit that mold.
If I win the lottery, I will retire and move to Florida.
If I won the lottery, I would retire and move to Florida.
The probability of the person winning the lottery is the same in both sentences.