It means basically the same. "It won't work if China does not undertake reform." This is looking to the future.
"It won't work if China has not undertaken reform." This is looking at the situation from the hypothetical time that the approach is tried.
1. "You won't pass if you don't study." Viewing the situation now.
2. "You won't pass if you haven't studied." Viewing the situation from the future, when you take the exam.
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