Sorry, jutfrank, I don't understand. Both 1) and 3) consist of two utterances and have a pronoun with boundary-crossing reference, right? Why does the former allow all three pronouns, while the latter only this/that?
Let's consider the following example: If he leaves tomorrow, will it/this/that upset you?
Are all three pronouns possible here? If so, why does this example differ from 2) in terms of pronoun usage?
Let me share my thoughts. I can distinguish four types of reference in this discussion:
a) object reference within an utterance (Swan's example) => it
b) boundary-crossing reference to a fact/idea/thought ('this' and 'that' point at something — in this case, text that's nearby or at least a little further away) => this/that
c) boundary-crossing reference to an event (she decided to paint her house pink) => this/that/it
d) event reference within an utterance (he leaves tomorrow) => this/that/it
What do you think?
One more question: Is there any difference in usage between It makes sense and This/that makes sense?

English Teacher