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    #11

    Re: it must/will/would be very hot

    Quote Originally Posted by NAL123 View Post
    1) It takes just half an hour to reach my dad's office, and he left almost an hour ago. He must be there by now.

    2) It takes just half an hour to reach my dad's office, and he left almost an hour ago. He will be there by now.

    3) It takes just half an hour to reach my dad's office, and he left almost an hour ago. He would be there by now.

    Do sentences 2) and 3) sound unlikely in this context, too?
    Taken in isolation number 3 doesn't sound quite natural, colloquially I would probably substitute "should".
    The three options would not be used interchangeably in BrE.

    Shall I phone Dad? - He will be there by now.
    I phoned and he hasn't answered. - He should be there by now.
    I have phoned three times and he hasn't answered. - He must be there by now.
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    #12

    Re: it must/will/would be very hot

    Stop asking about which form is more likely. That's not going to help.

    You should be focusing on the differences in meaning.

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    #13

    Re: it must/will/would be very hot

    He is there. The speaker present this as a fact.
    He will be there. The speaker asserts their certainty of this.
    He must be there. The speaker presents this as a logical conclusion.

    I wouldn't worry too much about He would be there until you are clear on those three.
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    #14

    Re: it must/will/would be very hot

    Quote Originally Posted by PeterCW View Post
    Taken in isolation number 3 doesn't sound quite natural, colloquially I would probably substitute "should".
    The three options would not be used interchangeably in BrE.

    Shall I phone Dad? - He will be there by now.
    I phoned and he hasn't answered. - He should be there by now.
    I have phoned three times and he hasn't answered. - He must be there by now.
    Shall I phone Dad? - He will be there by now = I assume that he is there by now. ("will" is used for assumption/presumption, or for what is likely)
    I phoned and he hasn't answered. - He should be there by now = He is probably there by now. ("should" implies probability)
    I have phoned three times and he hasn't answered. - He must be there by now = He is certainly there by now. ("must" implies certainty)

    Is my understanding correct?

    If so, don't we use "would", as a tentative form of "will", to assume/presume anything? Looking at what Piscean said in post #10, I think we don't use "would" in this way. Am I right?

    That will be Tony on the phone = I assume ( or it is likely that) that is Tony on the phone. (✅)

    That would be Tony on the phone = I assume (with a little doubt) that is Tony on the phone. (❎)

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    #15

    Re: it must/will/would be very hot

    Quote Originally Posted by NAL123 View Post
    Shall I phone Dad? - He will be there by now = I assume that he is there by now. ("will" is used for assumption/presumption, or for what is likely)
    Yes.
    I phoned and he hasn't answered. - He should be there by now = He is probably there by now. ("should" implies probability)
    I don't know what you understand by 'probability'. This is probably about expectations. We can imagine the speaker is worried about her dad because she expects him to be there but it seems that he isn't.

    I have phoned three times and he hasn't answered. - He must be there by now = He is certainly there by now. ("must" implies certainty)
    Possibly, yes. We can interpret this as a speaker expressing certainty that his dad is there. The reason for her dad not picking up is not because he's not there—there is another reason. This is not a very clear example.

    If so, don't we use "would", as a tentative form of "will", to assume/presume anything? Looking at what Piscean said in post #10, I think we don't use "would" in this way. Am I right?
    I suggest you forget about would for the moment.

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    #16

    Re: it must/will/would be very hot

    Quote Originally Posted by jutfrank View Post
    Possibly, yes. We can interpret this as a speaker expressing certainty that his dad is there. The reason for her dad not picking up is not because he's not there—there is another reason. This is not a very clear example.
    I think by "I have phoned three times and he hasn't answered. - He must be there by now." Peter CW meant that the dad is too busy to answer calls and therefore he must be in the office.

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    #17

    Re: it must/will/would be very hot

    Quote Originally Posted by NAL123 View Post
    I think by "I have phoned three times and he hasn't answered. - He must be there by now." Peter CW meant that the dad is too busy to answer calls and therefore he must be in the office.
    The speaker means he can't think of a reason that his dad wouldn't be there. It's still possible he's somewhere else.
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    #18

    Re: it must/will/would be very hot

    Quote Originally Posted by NAL123 View Post
    I think by "I have phoned three times and he hasn't answered. - He must be there by now." Peter CW meant that the dad is too busy to answer calls and therefore he must be in the office.
    No, that's not a very likely interpretation at all, if there means 'in the office', where the phone is. Logically, that's like saying if he answers, he is in the office, and if he doesn't answer, he is in the office. If you mean that the phone is not in the office, then that isn't clear.

    The interpretation is this: the reason for his not picking up is not due to his not being in the office since he is in the office.

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    #19

    Re: it must/will/would be very hot

    Quote Originally Posted by GoesStation View Post
    The speaker means he can't think of a reason that his dad wouldn't be there. It's still possible he's somewhere else.
    Well, the use of must really means that it is not possible he's somewhere else.

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    #20

    Re: it must/will/would be very hot

    Quote Originally Posted by jutfrank View Post
    Well, the use of must really means that it is not possible he's somewhere else.
    When highly stressed in spoken American English, it means "I can't think of anywhere else he could be." I'm pretty sure I've heard the British English-speaking Doctor Who use it the same way.
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