The expression is probably 'more likely than not'. It means that there is a 'more than 50% probability'. Another way to say the same thing is 'most likely'.
More likely than not the flight will be on time.
A: Do you think she will marry her boyfriend? B: It's more likely than not.
If this rainy weather continues, it's more likely than not that they will cancel the picnic.
Most likely the children will have eaten lunch by the time we arrive.
I hope this is helpful,
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