the outcome...would be akin to a coin toss

[GoodTaste]

Does "the outcome...would be akin to a coin toss" mean "the outcome...would be random/almost completely insignificant"?


====================
For example, the outcome of tests with a typical false-positive rate of 5% in places where the prevalence of COVID-19 is less than 5% would be akin to a coin toss; a lower prevalence would make positive tests less likely to be so. Even tests with over 99% specificity, such as some laboratory immunoassays, will not make immunity passports useful until we know whether — and for how long — the antibodies detected are neutralizing. And even then, societal and ethical implications would have to be determined.


-from Nature 13 May 2020
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41551-020-0567-0

 

[GoesStation]

No. A coin toss is random. Something akin to one is also random. That's what the author is trying to convey.

 

[GoodTaste]

I did say "the outcome would be random." So it is a Yes rather than No.

 

[GoesStation]

I did say "the outcome would be random." So it is a Yes rather than No.

You asked whether "akin to a coin toss" means "random/almost completely insignificant". It does mean "random". It doesn't mean "almost completely insignificant". I should have been a little clearer.

 

[GoodTaste]

You asked whether "akin to a coin toss" means "random/almost completely insignificant". It does mean "random". It doesn't mean "almost completely insignificant". I should have been a little clearer.

Statistically speaking, random = almost completely insignificant

 

[GoesStation]

Statistically speaking, random = almost completely insignificant

I don't think that's correct. If it's random, it's completely insignificant. If it's almost so, it's somewhat significant and therefore not random.

 

[emsr2d2]

Statistically speaking, random = almost completely insignificant

I don't agree. A coin toss might be random but the result might be hugely significant for the winner/loser.

 

[jutfrank]

I don't agree. A coin toss might be random but the result might be hugely significant for the winner/loser.

GoodTaste is right. He means 'statistically' insignificant. That basically means that the data is useless. The coin toss is just a metaphor.

And yes, GoesStation is also right in post #6—it doesn't mean 'almost', it means completely insignificant. This word akin doesn't carry the sense of 'almost'.

 

[GoodTaste]

I don't think that's correct. If it's random, it's completely insignificant. If it's almost so, it's somewhat significant and therefore not random.

Yes. random = completely insignificant. I used "almost" because then I thought of "akin to."