That is unlikely to happen short of regime change

Maybo

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That is unlikely to happen short of regime change, said Nicole Grajewski, an expert on Iranian strategy at Sciences Po in Paris. “I don’t see the Iranians unconditionally surrendering,” she said, adding that the last time Tehran did so was in an 1800s treaty with the Russian Empire, when it ceded territory in the Caucasus.

Source: White House Tries to Build Coalition on Iran to Address Energy Crisis by Alexander Ward, Lindsay Ellis, Robbie Gramer (WSJ)

Does "short of" mean "unless"?
 

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