The Meaning of Boom

[cubezero3]

When it comes to the slowing economy, Ellen Spero isn't biting her nails just yet. But the 47-year-old manicurist isn't buffing, filing or polishing as many nails as she'd like to, either. Most of her clients spend $12 to $50 weekly, but last month two longtime customers suddenly stopped showing up. Spero blames the softening economy. "I'm a good economic indicator," she says. "I provide a service that people can do without when they're concerned about saving some dollars." So Spero is downscaling, shopping at middle-brow Dillard's department store near her suburban Cleveland home, instead of Neiman Marcus. "I don't know if other clients are going to dump me, too," she says.
Even before Alan Greenspan's admission that America's red-hot economy is cooling, lots of working folks had already seen signs of the slowdown themselves. From car dealerships to Gap outlets, sales have been lagging for months as shoppers temper their spending. For retailers, who last year took in 24 percent of their revenue between Thanksgiving and Christmas, the cautious approach is coming at a crucial time. Already, experts say, holiday sales are off 7 percent from last year's pace. But don't sound any alarms just yet. Consumers seem only mildly concerned, not panicked, and many say they remain optimistic about the economy's long-term prospects even as they do some modest belt-tightening.

Consumers say they're not freaking out because, despite the dire headlines, their own fortunes still feel pretty good. Home prices are holding steady in most regions. In Manhattan, "there's a new gold rush happening in the $4 million to $10 million range, predominantly fed by Wall Street bonuses," says broker Barbara Corcoran. In San Francisco, prices are still rising even as frenzied overbidding quiets. "Instead of 20 to 30 offers, now maybe you only get two or three," says John Tealdi, a Bay Area real-estate broker. And most folks still feel pretty comfortable about their ability to find and keep a job.

Many folks see silver linings to this slowdown. Potential home buyers would cheer for lower interest rates. Employers wouldn't mind a little less froth in the job market. Many consumers seem to have been influenced by stock-market swings, which investors now view as a necessary ingredient to a sustained boom. Diners might see an upside, too. Getting a table at Manhattan's hot new Alain Ducasse restaurant used to be impossible. Not anymore. " For that, Greenspan&Co. may still be worth toasting.

35 Which of the following is the author likely to agree?
A A new boom, on the horizon.
B Tighten the belt, the single remedy.
C Caution all right, panic not.
D The more ventures, the more chances.

A friend of mine and I were discussing a Reading Comprehension question.
The quoted passage above is from a 2004 past paper and an abridged version of an article published 4 years earlier.
We both agree B and D are not correct answers, and C is correct. We have different opinions about A.
My friend believes that A is correct. His argument is that the consumers are not desperate and the slowing economy discussed in the first two paragraphs has brought growth in various sectors, though the news may seem horrifying. A proof, he believes, is the "new gold rush happening in the $4 million to $10 million range" in paragraph three.
I disagree on two points.
A gold rush doesn't necessarily mean a new boom is on the horizon. The online Cambridge dictionary defines a gold rush as "a situation in which a lot of people ...... have heard that they might make a lot of money". It suggests a possibility, only. I searched on the Internet and found examples of gold rushes failing to produce the expected economic outcome.
I agree that "A new boom, on the horizon", to a certain extent, suggests possibility. If so, it's a qualified one. An optimistic person, when seeing a gold rush, may think something good is on the horizon. Others might think of their past experiences and be more cautious when making such a judgement. A Reading Comprehension question should be solved using only information provided in the article. Whether the sitter of the exam believes the glass is half full or not is irrelevant.
The second reason is to do with what constitutes a boom. When I tried to solve the question as a sitter, I did notice there was "a gold rush" which was "in the $4 million to $10 million range". People can find opportunities to make money, regardless of how bad the overall economic situation is. Does that constitute a boom? It depends, in my opinion.
People understand the meaning of a word, based on its denotation and connotation. The dictionary definition of boom is " a period of sudden economic growth".
The denotation does seem to suggest economic growth in any area can be classified as a boom. However, its connotation, I believe, suggests otherwise. I am under the impression that boom is used in connection with the general economic condition of a country, or at least with that of an industry or sector. This led to me believing there was no boom, as suggested by my friend.
I did some research on the Internet. There was no information about the percentage of residential homes which fell into the category. However, one article I found said the average price of residential homes in Manhattan in 2004 was over 1 million. The other said the median was 0.434 million. The two figures cannot be used on a like-for-like bases. But they do seem to suggest the author is talking about a tiny part of the residential home market in just one area in one city out of half of the North American continent that is the United States. That potential growth in such a small market can be called a boom is, at best, questionable.
I'd like to hear your opinions.
P.S.: I have realized that in my argument I used data from 2004, because it only occurred to me to check where the passage was from after my discussion with the friend. That said, I guess that in general my argument still makes sense.

 

[jutfrank]

"35 Which of the following is the author likely to agree?"

Is that really the question? It's not even grammatical.

The point of this kind of question is that you choose only one answer, i.e., the one that best reflects what the writer is saying. The answer is C.

A gold rush doesn't necessarily mean a new boom is on the horizon.

Right.

 

[SoothingDave]

The price of real estate in Manhattan is not a good indicator of anything except how much money the people working in finance there are making. And they can make money outsourcing production, meaning closing factories and putting people out of work elsewhere in the US.

Other than that one real estate market, the things mentioned in that article are all signs of slowing economy. Not "a new boom on the horizon."