I would have thought/I thought (supposition)

[worcester]

Hello everyone,
Could someone please tell me if I can use both these sentences to express supposition/assumption?
Do these sentences mean that the person we're talking about has not arrived yet?

Situaton: Two friends waiting for another friend and one of them says:

1."I would have thought John would be here by now."
2."I thought John would be here by now."

Thank you.

 

[Rover_KE]

John has not arrived yet.

The sentences have the same meaning.

 

[Raymott]

Do these sentences mean that the person we're talking about has not arrived yet?
...
Situaton: Two friends waiting for another friend and one of them says:

In the context you've given, (two friends waiting for John), the sentences have to mean that John hasn't arrived yet.
Sentence 2, in a different context, could be said even if John is there.

A: John is here already.
B: Yes, I thought John would be here by now.