GoodTaste
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- Feb 19, 2016
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Does "the outcome...would be akin to a coin toss" mean "the outcome...would be random/almost completely insignificant"?
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For example, the outcome of tests with a typical false-positive rate of 5% in places where the prevalence of COVID-19 is less than 5% would be akin to a coin toss; a lower prevalence would make positive tests less likely to be so. Even tests with over 99% specificity, such as some laboratory immunoassays, will not make immunity passports useful until we know whether — and for how long — the antibodies detected are neutralizing. And even then, societal and ethical implications would have to be determined.
-from Nature 13 May 2020
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41551-020-0567-0
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For example, the outcome of tests with a typical false-positive rate of 5% in places where the prevalence of COVID-19 is less than 5% would be akin to a coin toss; a lower prevalence would make positive tests less likely to be so. Even tests with over 99% specificity, such as some laboratory immunoassays, will not make immunity passports useful until we know whether — and for how long — the antibodies detected are neutralizing. And even then, societal and ethical implications would have to be determined.
-from Nature 13 May 2020
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41551-020-0567-0
