It depends on the intonation.
I think it means that I believe it will rain. ;-)
but it did rain, lol
What it means is, "I don't expect it to rain". However, it's intended meaning in common usage is, "I do expect it to rain".
don't two negations equal a positive, therefore I expect it to rain. It would be great to be able to consult the correct answers. Is there any way of doing this?
The word analysis means 'I expect it not to'; usage normally intends the opposite. Possibly influenced by romance (and other) languages' common usage of double negatives for emphasis...
The double negative applies to the word "surprise". Thus, it means I'd be surprised if it rains. Or, I don't expect it to rain.
This means "I think it will rain" and is an example of "expletive negation". See http://www.glottopedia.org/index.php